Defeating the United States with Radiological Weapons in Fourth Generation Warfare

On September 11th 2001, Al-Qaeda used the principles of fourth generation warfare (4GW) to achieve strategic effects that have cascaded throughout the United States. The devastating attacks could have been multiplied a hundred fold or more had each of the hijackers checked two bags each containing radioactive material. This paper addresses the possibility of a 4GW adversary launching a parallel radiological attack targeting the US economic system. An attempt will be made to determine if the effects of such an attack could strategically paralyze the US economy to the extent that the American way of life is significantly changed--a de facto "defeat of the United States." The methodology of the investigation will use the center of gravity analysis posed by Dr. Joe Strange coupled with Brig Gen David Deptula's effects-based operations model. In order to draw the conclusion, several historical examples will be extrapolated from in addition to an analysis of the likelihood of a 4GW adversary acquiring sufficient radioactive material to carry out a successful attack. Since September 11th 2001, the US government has trained its attention on terrorism and WMDs. The relevancy for understanding the principles of 4GW, radiological weapons, their effects, and the threats they pose has never been more urgent.