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Air University School of Advanced Air and Space Studies
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This paper serves as a transition piece between the Air Force 2025 and Blue Horizons futures studies, particularly in the area of study methodology. It reviews forecasting theory and methods to give the reader a general understanding of available long-term planning techniques. It analyzes the methodology used in Air Force 2025 and recommends changes for the follow-on study, Blue Horizons. With the retrospective advantage of a decade of past history, it evaluates Air Force 2025's alternate futures in terms of narrative, wildcards, and signposts. Finally, it assesses where the world of 2006 sits within the strategic planning space and where the world is trending. The paper concludes with five recommendations for Blue Horizons: 1) Institutionalize the futures process into Air Force long-range planning, complete with periodic reevaluations, 2) Use Air Force 2025 methodologies, with minor corrections, for Blue Horizons, 3) Reassess and update the key scenario drivers, 4) Use a Red Team to determine signposts for each of the worlds and use these markers for periodic reevaluation, and 5) Avoid including interim worlds in the study.
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